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Real Estate Market Update for June

Compliments of the Cromford Report- Beginning of June

Many people new to the Valley ask where they should move too, since our Valley is so huge, we do cover a lot of ground in just Maricopa county alone… That said, you may be a little surprised to see who’s been more popular these last 2 years as far as purchases being made. The Cromford Report - Cromford Market Index - By Major CityThis first chart is comparing the cities of Chandler, Scottsdale, Avondale and Surprise in weekly sales volume, interesting to see that Avondale has become increasing popular the last 2 years, more so than the rest, followed closely by Chandler, then Surprise and lastly Scottsdale.  Some may guess that it is the availability of land for the Builders which is impacting those numbers; however the chart is purely for RE-sale homes… things that make you go hmmmm….

 

Dashboard 1This chart is showing the listing volume by calendar month, for single family homes all over Maricopa county- since year 2000…. I’ve written about it before, December is actually a way better month over January to sell your home, way less competition…. But demand isn’t as high as it is in the spring time… the lowest month for selling competition from March to October happens to be July… so both go against the common thought that during the “Summer Doldrums” when it’s hot as heck in Phoenix or December when everyone is Xmas shopping isn’t a good time to sell your home.  I’d have to disagree!

The following is the official Cromford report we subscribe to and are happy to share with our clients, for those of you who may be a little geeky like me and like reading numbers- please enjoy!  For those that are not, just focus on what I bolded so you get the jist. 🙂

Starting with the basic ARMLS numbers for June 1, 2017 and comparing them with June 1, 2016 for all areas & types:

Active Listings (excluding UCB): 18,476 versus 20,979 last year - down 11.9% - and down 3.9% from 19,228 last month
Active Listings (including UCB): 23,281 versus 25,941 last year - down 10.3% - and down 4.4% compared with 24,345 last month
Pending Listings: 7,324 versus 7,791 last year - down 6.0% - and down 3.0% from 7,552 last month
Under Contract Listings (including Pending, CCBS & UCB): 12,129 versus 12,753 last year - down 4.9% - and down 5.2% from 12,796 last month
Monthly Sales: 9,805 versus 8,750 last year - up 11.9 - and up 11.1% from 8,825 last month
Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $150.53 versus $142.29 last year - up 5.8% - but down 0.4% from $151.18 last month
Monthly Median Sales Price: $240,000 versus $225,198 last year - up 6.6% - and up 3.2% from $232,500 last month
Supply is still significantly lower than last year, but not quite as much as last month, when there was a 13.3% gap in terms of active listings with no contract.

The monthly sales rate is up almost 12% compared with a year ago. This time May 2017 has a one working day advantage over May 2016, which accounts for 4.8% of that rise. In April we saw only a 3% rise, but allowing for the extra working day in April 2016, we get roughly the same result for both months. The year over year comparison adjusted for number of working days is 7.2% for May and 7.8% for April. So although the unadjusted figures suggest May was stronger than April, the truth is that sales faded just a bit on a sales rate per working day basis. We apologize for being so pedantic, but we are looking for real signs of a trend here. The trend is very slightly down.

Further sign that demand is on a weakening trend is coming from the pending and under contract numbers, both of which are down from last year, down from last month and further down from last year than they were last month. These are all consistent signals that demand, though strong, is losing a little steam. The contract ratio confirms this, dropping back from its peak at the beginning of May.

Buyers should not get too excited by these trends because they are so minor. We are still in a market where demand exceeds supply and any change in the balance is quite small. In fact we have seen the most stable readings for the Cromford® Market Index over the last 5 months that we have seen for any 5 month period since 2001.

There are a few changes going on the market nevertheless:

townhouse / condo homes are gaining market share over single-family detached homes
new homes are gaining market share over re-sales
supply is dropping faster in Pinal County than Maricopa County
sales volume is picking up in several of the more expensive areas
sales volume is dropping in the lowest price ranges, mainly due to the lack of available supply
We have a stable and healthy market in which prices continue to climb well in excess of inflation except in a few isolated areas among the more expensive parts of the valley. At the moment there is little sign of change but there really is no guarantee we won't see something unexpected during June. We scan the numbers on a daily basis looking for anomalies or changes in existing trends. Rest assured that the Cromford® Report will advise you as soon as we see anything important

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