market trends

Housing and Mortgage Predictions for 2011

Predicting mortgage and housing

 

With 2010 com­ing to a close, the “experts” are out in full force, mak­ing pre­dic­tions for next year’s hous­ing and mort­gage mar­kets on busi­ness tele­vi­sion and in the papers.

Pre­dic­tions for 2011 are wide-ranging:

The prob­lem with hous­ing and mort­gage pre­dic­tions is that — like all pre­dic­tions — they’re just edu­cated guesses about the future. Nobody knows what will really hap­pen with the hous­ing and mort­gage mar­kets in 2011. All any­one can do is the­o­rize. As layper­sons, though, it can be hard to sep­a­rate the­ory from fact.

Tele­vi­sion can make that task even more dif­fi­cult at times.

As an exam­ple, when a well-dressed econ­o­mist goes on CNBC and presents a clear, suc­cinct argu­ment for why home prices will fall on 2011, we’re inclined to believe the analy­sis and con­clu­sion. After all, the out­come seems plau­si­ble out­come given the facts. But then, imme­di­ately after, a dif­fer­ent econ­o­mist presents an oppo­site argu­ment — that home prices will rise in 2011 – and her analy­sis seems sound, too.

Even Fred­die Mac can’t see the future.

Last year, the gov­ern­ment group pre­dicted mort­gage rates to 6 per­cent in 2010. That never hap­pened, of course. Instead, con­form­ing mort­gage rates dropped over a 7-month period this year to lev­els best be described as “his­toric”.  Fred­die Mac couldn’t have been more wrong.

So, what’s a home­owner to believe?

About the only thing that’s cer­tain right now is that mort­gage rates remain low by his­tor­i­cal stan­dards, and that home prices do, too. Also, that both hous­ing and mort­gage mar­kets appear to be rid­ing momen­tum higher into 2011.  This sug­gests that it will be more expen­sive to buy and finance a home by the end of 2011.

Until that time, how­ever, pre­dic­tions are just guesses.

(Article above posted on several blogs and websites as of 12/29/10— original source unknown)

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In my opinion; after the roller coaster rides of 2008 through 2010 (government intervention impacted supply and demand)- we will see 2011 still riddled with foreclosures however the market did hit a second bottom locally 10/10/10 according to The Cromford Report (first one was 4/6/09).

I personally expect it to remain relatively flat since I am currently selling homes at or below pricing of when I started in the Real Estate business nearly 18 years ago- there just isn’t much more lower it can go and as the economy in general recovers, prices will slowly increase- that is for certain!  (That’s just an educated guess based on the article above- lol )

With that said; many buyers have sat on the fence waiting to see what will happen next year before they do anything.  Unfortunately we won’t know for sure when we’ve started a permanent “recovery” until after prices do increase, meaning those waiting for certain indications will actually miss the bottom and purchase when the prices have already increased.  There are a lot of great “deals” out there TODAY when one really looks, they’ll come to the conclusion that it’s a great time to invest or “move up” into that home one could not have afforded 5 years ago.  There’s also something to be said for the enjoyment your own home brings and pride of ownership.

For Sellers who are upside down and either purchased or refi’d in years 2004-2008; unless the banks actually start reducing principal balances on debts owed- a strong consideration should be made with regards to doing a short sale today in order to get out from under that house.  If the market ever returns to the record high in 2005, it’s unlikely it’ll be anytime soon.  Most likely, it will be several years down the road before those homes could ever be worth the same values again that we saw before.  Why keep throwing “bad” money in after “bad” money in the meantime?  If you haven’t gotten behind in your payments yet, we’ve helped clients successfully sell short and immediately repurchase today (it’s actually possible to do a short sale and not damage your credit, just ask us how!).

For Buyers; Rates are still in the 5’s and prices at record lows; you cannot go wrong with purchasing a home today if you can qualify for a mortgage loan OR have cash on hand (calling all investors)!  For current renters; it’s a no brainer- with the tax advantage of home ownership and the net effective house payment vs. rent comparison- renters can live in much nicer homes today for the same or less money monthly than they can renting.  Click here to read more…

Click here to get started OR call 480-243-4242 and we will gladly help you navigate through all of this confusion and help you achieve your and your family’s Real Estate GOALS for 2011- just let us know what you need and we’ll be there for you, your family and/or friends!  We are never too busy for your referrals and greatly appreciate our past clients passing the word about us on to others.

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