July Real Estate Market update

2016-07 Infographic and Commentary_Page_1 (Click image above or HERE for downloadable PDF)

 

Monthly Sales Up 7.7%
Listings Under Contract Up 5.6%

For Buyers:
Unless you’re looking for a property in the lowest price ranges, there’s a decent amount of supply to choose from in the Phoenix Metropolitan Area. As prices rise, most buyers will ad-just what they buy in terms of size or location in accordance with their budget. Over time, we’ve seen the average size home purchased continue to rise, even when prices were at their highest. For example, in 2002 the average sized home purchased was 1,607sf. It rose to 1,632sf in 2006, then 1,715 in 2011 and 1,762sf so far in 2016. Of properties sold under $200K in 2006, the average size is currently 1,388sf. Between $200K-$300K, the average size is 1,829sf. $300K-$500K is 2,385sf. $500K-$1M is 3,189sf. $1M-$2M is 4,421sf and over $2M is 6,338sf.

For Sellers:
The median sales price has risen a whopping $20,000 since January’s measure of $210,000, a 9.5% increase. This type of disparity can spur articles and discussion about real estate “bubbles” and rapid price appreciation. This looks very exciting for sellers until it’s compared to the price per square foot measure, which has only increased 1.5% from $138.73 to $140.84 during the same time frame. The difference in growth rates between the median sales price and the average sales price per square foot can be attributed to a shift in the composition of sales by price range. Due to the lack of supply of properties below $150,000, the Phoenix Metropolitan Area has seen a significant drop in percentage of sales in this price range. Simultaneously, there has been an increase in market share within the $200,000 - $300,000 price range where there is also more supply. The increase in supply over $200,000 keeps individual property appreciation per square foot more sustainable. However, because the under $150,000 market continues to lose market share as the over $200,000 market gains, the median sales price measure is pushed up higher than the rate of the average price per square foot. For the median measure to increase, sales over $230,000 would need to achieve 51% market share or more.

Commentary written by Tina Tamboer-Glatfelter, Senior Real Estate Analyst with The Cromford Report
©2016 Cromford Associates LLC and Tamboer Consulting LLC

June’s Real Estate Market Update

 

Cromford Infographic report_Page_1

Click image above or HERE for PDF version of the full article

Total Monthly Sales Up 3.4%
Monthly Median Sales Price Up 6.5% to $226,900

For Buyers
Welcome to June! The weather is heating up and Realtors are using oven mitts on lava-hot lockboxes and keys to show property. If you’re planning to continue your search into the summer, you may find some relief in the competition for that perfect property. While other potential buyers are distracted by graduations, vacations and weekend getaways, that leaves a slightly longer window of opportunity for snagging up those new properties that hit the market. Don’t expect current price trends to change anytime soon. There is still more demand than supply in many areas under $500,000 so expect sales prices to continue rising through the summer, especially for properties under $200,000.

For Sellers
This month we’ve introduced the Listing Success Rate into our graphic. This measure counts all of the listings that closed, canceled or expired over the last month and takes a percentage of those that closed. The current measure is 76.7%, which is very positive considering it was 66% at the end of 2014. The price ranges with the highest success rates are $100,000-$200,000 with 85% of listings successfully closing and only 15% cancelling or expiring followed by the $200,000-$300,000 price range with an 81% success rate. The higher price ranges over $500,000 are seeing lower success rates with those over $1M seeing more properties cancel or expire in a month than close. This is actually typical as many sellers in these price ranges choose to cancel their listings once temperatures reach over 100 degrees and relist when things cool off in October, causing a higher than normal cancellation rate for June.

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May Real Estate Market Update

2016-05 Infographic and Commentary_Page_1

(Click on photo above or here to download PDF document)

Listings Under Contract Up 6.5%
Monthly Median Sales Price Up 9.9%

For Buyers
May is often the last month of “buyer season” before the summer slowdown. In anticipation
of hotter temperatures, graduations and upcoming summer vacations, many home buyers
would prefer to get their contracts into escrow and closed before the end of June. As a result,
there are many areas of the valley where there are currently more properties in escrow than
active for sale. Not surprisingly, those areas are concentrated where the average sale price is
under $250,000 in parts of the Southeast Valley (such as North Tempe, West Mesa, North
Chandler and North Gilbert), South Phoenix, and most of the West Valley. This is temporary,
buyers can expect relief from competing offers in the summer months if they choose to brave
the higher temperatures.

For Sellers
Overall sales have been following 2015 pretty closely thus far. April was down less than 1%
from April last year, but year-to-date sales are up 2.5% as of week 19. The main difference is
in the activity by price range. Sales under $175,000 have been declining year-over-year for
the past 9 months with April 2016 down 18.4% from April 2015. This is not due to low demand,
but low supply of homes available for sale. April sales between $175,000 and
$600,000 are up 15% year-over-year and down 9.3% over $600,000. The big difference between
these price points is the level of supply. It’s chronically low in the bottom price ranges
and too high at the top, causing vastly different experiences for sellers. Properties selling under
$175,000 are experiencing annual appreciation around 10% since the beginning of
2016. Middle range properties are seeing around 3-5% annual appreciation, and the high end
properties over $500,000 are experiencing flat appreciation rates at best with some price
ranges at the very top seeing negative annual appreciation.

Commentary written by Tina Tamboer-Glatfelter, Senior Real Estate Analyst with The Cromford Report
©2016 Cromford Associates LLC and Tamboer Consulting LLC

City Rankings, 5 yrs ago vs today

In October of 2011, I wrote a blog about the ranking of the cities in the Metro Phoenix area based on their price per sqft and the percentage of change from the previous year’s amounts…. The column on the right is the last rankings I pulled just a couple of days ago. 

Using Chandler as an example- it’s ranking #10 in the valley today with an average price of $138.75. That’s an increase of 3.8% on average from 2015, when the average for the city was $133.63.  Compare that to 2011/2010’s numbers and I think anyone would be convinced that the worse is way behind us…. In 2011, Chandler ranked #13 at a mere $93.51 a sqft which was DOWN from 2010 by 9.3% when Chandler had been $103.09 a sqft. 

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Truth be told, April of 2011 was our true bottom of the financial crisis- at least here locally…. It’s great to see that in the last 5+ years, our local Chandler market has rebounded by 32%, so while last year we saw an increase of 3.8%, the average in the last 5 years has been closer to 6% appreciation a year.  Those folks that bought in 2011 and still own today should be quite happy with themselves as they’ve done really well on their investments!

When we think back to a year ago, the market was tepid and not showing any of the positive signs that suddenly appeared in early February 2015. If you look at the daily market snapshot today you can see that almost all of the indicators are substantially more positive than they were a year ago, including:

  • days of inventory down 20%
  • annual sales rate up 10%
  • days on market (sales) down 10%
  • days on market (actives) down 7%
  • listing success rate up 6%
  • contract ratio up 29%

So we enter 2016 in much better shape than we entered 2015 (per the Cromford Report)

I personally feel a great momentum in our marketplace and expect 2016 to be a bustling year with lots of real estate changing hands… Don’t live in Chandler?  How’d your city you live in rank?  If you need help deciding whether now is a good time to jump into or out of this market, please feel free to contact our office for a no obligation consultation- 480-243-4242 as we are happy to help you with your real estate needs!

THE BIG SHORT- Have you seen it yet?

 

The_Big_Short_teaser_posterWell buckle your seat belts, that is if you’re NOT a millennial OR someone who wasn’t effected by the housing crash 10 years ago…

Me?  During the crash, I had been a Sales Manager for a local homebuilder with several rental properties at the peak of the market, many of which had 2 loans on them… When the market did crash, besides the joy I experienced (I’m being quite facetious at the moment) at letting go most of our Sales representatives we had at the time, I had the pleasure of either short selling or losing to foreclosure all of the properties I’d owned, went through a divorce with 2 young children and left my 6 figure job because I saw the writing on the wall and knew that builder was going to struggle to stay afloat- which not only did they file BK, but so did I ultimately…

So throughout the movie, I found myself moaning and groaning as I relived all the emotions every time I saw a flash of a bank like “Countrywide” or “Wachovia” on the screen or when they went into major description of the loans like the “Nina” loans which were No Income No Asset verification that were given basically to anyone with a pulse.

Basically the depths and layers of greed that facilitated all of the fraud that occurred leading up to and during the crash was astonishing to me….

25.-What-the-Big-Short-teaches-the-little-guySome notable quotes from the movie:

Jared Vennett: Tell me the difference between stupid and illegal and I'll have my wife's brother arrested.

______________________________

Mark Baum: I don't get it. Why are they confessing?

Danny Moses: They're not confessing.

Porter Collins: They're bragging.

 

 

 

 

 

Not only did I go through my own financial crisis which forced me to learn how to negotiate Short Sales; but in years 2008-2013, with the help of my team, we literally helped hundreds of people successfully avoid foreclosure by completing Short Sales themselves.  They were lengthy, stressful and dealing with the Banks that caused the mess was far from fun… The worse part for me was sitting at the dining table hearing the stories of loss, loss of job, income, etc… I saw many tears during those years which today I blame the majority of my grey hairs on. It’s a proven fact that home ownership makes happier homes, to the point of where I’ve seen studies where homeownership increases stability and benefits children directly with higher test scores.

So here we are in 2015, when looking around, seems life and the economy is much better than it was in general with employment rates and homeownership rates much much higher than it was during the crash.  I pray we’ve learned our lessons… the genius who predicted the crash sadly may not agree…

One thing I can tell you after my 22 year full time experience in this industry is that our Real Estate market is cyclical and if it seems too good to be true, then there probably is a catch.  I personally live a lot more conservatively than I did 10 years ago and rather than find myself in debt up to my eyeballs, I prefer to live beneath my means as I never want to go through that ever ever again. 

It’s a LOT more fun selling houses when my clients are making a profit and what’s even better is helping my past Short Sale clients become homeowners again, it truly is one of my favorite things to do today…

Considering selling your home this Holiday Season?

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If you are, you MAY want to think twice before you give Ken Griswald a run for his money with the Christmas lights…

BUT DON’T GET ME WRONG… some Holiday decor is actually recommended.  The numbers show that demand during this season tends to wan some however the Buyers that do come out tend NOT to be tire kickers and usually are quite serious!!  If you follow our tips, you will have greater chances to sell your home during the holiday season!

Most of these tips are important to follow year round, but even more crucial this time of year:

  1. Clean thoroughly, De-Clutter and pack away what you don’t need and STAGE your home! Accentuate the positive- Dangle a little mistletoe to show off an entryway and be an equal opportunity decorator- don’t be overly religious so as not to turn off certain prospective Buyers.  Go easy on the lights and think about going with a skinnier tree so your home doesn’t feel cluttered.  Consider stashing wrapped gifts in a closet or stacked neatly in a corner. Curb appeal is especially important this time of year when trees have lost their leaves so spend some extra time sprucing up your front entryway.  A wreath or bowl of pinecones will help your home feel festive without going overboard.
  2. Use a Realtor that incorporates professional photography into your marketing, particularly twilight and aerial shots,  3d or live video as well.  ‘Tis the season to be busy… a lot of shopping will take place online- the key is to ensure your audience has plenty to look at to entice them to come see your home in person.  Get them emotionally involved so they are “sold” before they arrive to your doorstep by giving them lots to look at online.
  3. Once your prospective Buyer arrives, make sure your home is warm (physically) and inviting to all of their senses! Be accommodating with showing requests, everyone is busy busy busy! A little ambiance with candles, cider simmering on the stove or Holiday candles burning along with some light music and treats; so it smells good, feels good, sounds good, tastes good- will definitely go a long way with making your guests feel right at home.
  4. People are looking for deals year round, but especially this time of year.  Be sure to price your home right, sweeten your “deal” to make your home more appealing over your competition by offering an incentive like closing costs or a home warranty.  Pre-MLS marketing and inviting the neighbors over for a private open house are wonderful strategies to help get your home more attention sooner than later and help get it SOLD!

Please click HERE for full Cromford Report with more stats for month of November. If you’re thinking about selling, then it’s really important to know the current stats before you decide on your list price- what your neighbor sold for last summer will have little bearing today on your list price as the market has changed significantly since then.  The following is an excerpt from the full report:

The cooling trend that started gently in August has now developed more momentum. Things are getting better for Buyers and worse for Sellers.

  • Active Listings: 21,439 versus 24,846 last year - down 13.7% - but up 7.1% from 20,024 last month
  • Under Contract Listings: 9,026 versus 8,008 last year - up 12.7% - and up very slightly from 9,003 last month
  • Monthly Sales: 6,214 versus 6,271 last year - down 0.9% - and down 12.7% from 7,117 last month

The above numbers demonstrate a weakness in closed sales but a strength in under contract listings.

Sales were down 1% from October last year, the weakest year over year comparison for any ANY month since January but the price trends continue to show positive appreciation. It’s becoming clear that the top and bottom end of the price ranges are selling less and the middle is selling more, compared with last year at this time. The bottom is selling less due to low supply while the top end is selling less due to lower demand.

At the end of the day, the statistics do show that if you have a reason to sell soon, do it now as actually December is a much stronger month for real estate sales than January or February due to the spending that occurs during Christmas… It takes most families until Springtime to recoup and get caught up financially and be in a better position to purchase a home.  One fantastic thing about Arizona which does tend to go against the rest of the country this time of year, is our weather and attraction of Winter Visitors, which is definitely in our favor and helps improve demand and your likelihood of selling your home during the Holiday Season.

One last thought to share- IF YOU OR SOMEONE YOU KNOW is considering BUYING, now if the time!  During the summer most of our listings sold immediately with multiple offers and some bidding wars, so while the scales are tipping in the favor of Buyers- now is the time to go find a deal!  Sellers that have their homes on the market right now tend to be quite motivated and less competition means more buying power!

Give us a call at 480-243-4242 for help with any of your Real Estate needs- we are always happy to help!

Real Estate Market update for 3rd quarter 2015

(Click on photo (or here) to open PDF doc)SEV Summary Market Conditions

The above stats are for the Southeast Valley to include Chandler, Gilbert, Mesa, Tempe, Ahwatukee, Sun Lakes and Queen Creek for the last 3 years.  We had a STELLAR March through July this year, that is for sure!  The average price per sqft is about $50 more than it was 3 years ago when Distressed properties were a huge impact in our market, they constituted more than half of the inventory back then. 

Current Demand levels are considered normal however there are areas with less supply than others that keep the overall Market index higher than average, which typically favors Sellers.  The last few weeks we have had some seasonal decline, but our market is still quite busy overall and the month of August isn’t quite over yet.

The following commentary is from Mike Orr of the Cromford report with specific stats you may find interesting regarding the month of August (click here to download the pdf document), especially if you’re currently in the position to BUY &/OR SELL a home right now. 

As always, we are here and happy to help you figure out the best strategy for your family- give us a call at 480-243-4242 or send Rebecca an email at rebecca@integrityallstars.com if you’re thinking about Real Estate or know someone you care about is!

MARKETUPDATES

Current Local Real Estate Market Update & Stats

Please check out the video and read the latest stats below- our biggest concern is the affordability for our entry level buyers or folks that have been renting… IF that is you or someone you know- PLEASE call us to help at 480-243-4242 or email Rebecca directly at Rebecca@IntegrityAllStars.com to get the home ownership process started right away, before rates increase any further!

 

The following is an excerpt from the “Recent News” published by Mike Orr of the Cromford Report:

Overall demand has returned to just above normal with little to no sign of further momentum beyond this point. Currently the supply situation is the most important thing to watch and this is what determines how much competition buyers will experience.

Basic stats for this past year for all areas & types:

  • Active Listings (excluding UCB): 21,512 versus 26,205 last year - down 17.9% - and down 3.5% from 22,303 last month
  • Under Contract Listings (including Pending & UCB): 12,276 versus 10,584 last year - up 15.8% - and up 2.4% from 11,988 last month
  • Monthly Sales: 8,363 versus 7,572 last year - up 10.4% - and up 6.0% from 7,887 last month
  • Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $135.88 versus $130.27 last year - up 4.3% - and up 2.9% from $131.99 last month!

From a seller's perspective, there is a lot of encouragement in this batch of numbers, though buyers might be dismayed to see price per sq. ft. rise by almost 3% in a single month.

For the market as a whole we currently see 3.1 months of supply, which is significantly below normal, but not excessively so. However, when we look at the single-family market by price range we see certain price bands with much lower supply:

  • $100K-$125K - 0.8 months (versus 1.8 on May 1, 2014)
  • $125K-$150K - 0.9 months (versus 1.9)
  • $150K-$175K - 1.1 months (versus 2.3)
  • $175K-$200K - 1.3 months (versus 2.6)

A few years ago we had almost 7,000 active listings between $100K and $150K. Now we have just 909.

As we move upmarket from $250K, things become a little easier for buyers because supply is less scarce. Once we get above $400K there are more active listings than last year and most buyers are having a much easier time with less competition from other buyers. In other words, demand is good but supply is plentiful at these higher price points.

Although many are feeling more optimistic about the market, and justifiably so, the lack of supply of entry-level homes is a very troubling sign. This is good for current homeowners but bad for those currently renting and wanting to get started in home ownership. This could become even more of a problem if mortgage interest rates rise, adding to affordability problems for the first time home buyer.

spring market

Real Estate market has heated up this SPRING!

We’ve been waiting after a slow 2014 for our market to heat up and it’s here!

The above video is a short summary of the current market conditions we are experiencing locally, data provided by the Cromford Report; our local experts of Real Estate market data analysis.

We’ve been seeing homes that are priced right selling immediately with multiple offers and certain price ranges are definitely more competitive than others.  IF a home is in the FHA price range (280k and below), if it shows nice and priced well, don’t expect it to be on the market but a few days right now…

We saw a 35.2% increase in sales volume overall in the Valley from just last month alone?!?!

Many more homes are pending, but the good news is that with an increase in price/demand- we are seeing more Sellers listing their homes and the rate of new listings has ticked up a tad.

It’s quite natural, per Mike Orr of the Cromford report, for news of a stronger market to bring out some more sellers.  If this continues it will help keep the market from getting too frenzied…

We saw the FRENZY in 2012 when plenty of Buyers just gave up trying to compete for a home- the difference today is that it’s not the Investors that Buyers are competing against but rather other people who are moving up/down, relocating to Sunny Arizona, or that have been renting like the “Millennial” and “Boomerang” Buyers- GOOD thing too as the RATES are still VERY LOW.

We are being warned however if this pace continues, prices and rates both may raise which will effect drastically the size home someone will qualify for – so moral to this story – if you’ve been waiting to either Buy or Sell- now is the time while our market is SIZZLING!

Please call us at 480-243-4242 and we are happy to help you with your Real Estate needs!

THIS September may be best month yet locally for HOME Buyers

CR2Periodically I like to share the information I get regarding our local market statistics to help our clients determine if right now is the right time for them to buy or sell Real Estate.  I was lucky to get to sit in on a presentation by Michael Orr last week of the Cromford reportClick here for power point presentation

I found it quite insightful due to the fact that he verifies the information in our local MLS data is correct and bases his analysis on those statistics rather than basing his information on National data.  He started off his presentation like so many of us do with the disclaimer/definition of a “good” market- because every market can be good, depending on who you are and your goals. 

He was clear to say that the Real Estate agents that focus on the distressed market or local homebuilders today may not think it’s a “good” market right now- but if you are a BUYER looking to purchase by September of this year, this is a GREAT market right now…

Basically, it boils down to the simple law of Supply and Demand as the Cromford Index shows currently. 

In Chandler for example, the demand being in the RED but the supply in the green shows currently Buyers have the upper hand. However, a truly balanced market would be at 100 for the Market index and we are not far off from it. 

Michael predicted that by Spring of 2015, we most likely will see it gradually return to a Sellers market.  Nothing crazy, just a slight push upwards, along the lines of inflation which traditionally before the market crashed in 06, 2-5% a year increase in value is all that a homeowner would expect from his home and be quite happy for it.

This time last year, the Market Index was at 151 for Metro Phoenix with a Supply of 63.1 and Demand at 95.3.  Things have changed quickly in this past year as it was clearly a Sellers market back then.  The prices were also lower too… So a seller today without a huge urgency to sell, very well may be better off today than where they would have fared just 1 year ago as well… seems in life and in real estate, there’s always 2 sides to every coin… If there were a Seller just getting out of the market entirely, we’d most likely recommend to wait until Springtime to sell HOWEVER if they were wanting to purchase, they may fair better selling with today’s prices and incentives that Buyers are receiving rather than waiting to both sell and buy in the Springtime because that way as Buyers, they too can take advantage of the DEALS happening out in our marketplace today.

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Michael Orr also spoke to why he thinks that the demand has dropped (please watch the power point presentation, link at top of blog for further stats and details) but mostly because our younger generation (Millenials) are preferring to rent homes today instead of purchasing for many reasons and there’s so many people still renting as a result of losing a home to foreclosure/short sale that the RENTAL MARKET has only gotten more expensive in recent years making it a great time to be a LANDLORD.  Because of this (along with the interest rates remaining super low), it’s CHEAPER TO OWN your home than rent today, not to mention the great tax benefits of owning vs renting a home.

ford Crom

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WHO WANTS FREE $$$ TO BUY A HOME WITH?

If you want to live in Maricopa County, you can get 5% of the purchase price of your home from the city of Phoenix as a grant and you don’t have to pay it back!  We just had one of o-r buyers get most of their earnest deposit back once they closed on their new home using this program, give us a call at 480-243-4242 to learn how to take advantage of this free money!

10yrChandlerStatspage001

Last 10 yrs of Local Real Estate Stats- Phew, what a Ride!?!

(Stats & Graphics Courtesy of Mike Orr, Cromford Report)

City Rankings-top tenWOW, I wasn’t kidding when I said “What a Ride!?!”  I’ve had the luxury of working now full time for over 20 yrs in my chosen profession and I can honestly say that this last Real Estate "Roller Coaster Ride" lasted much longer than most of us ever had anticipated.

I do practice Real Estate all over the Valley, but with my office and home located in the City of Chandler, the following stats in this blog will be based on the City of Chandler. If you do not live in Chandler but instead in another Metro Phoenix city, please see the following list of 41 Cities to see where your city ranks with price per sqft.  The market conditions that effected our homes’ values over the last 10 years took the same "ride" all over our Valley, however just at slightly different price points depending on the area itself. Currently, the City of Chandler is Ranked #10 for Annual Average $ per sqft in the Valley of the Sun at $125.48, an appreciation of 19.2% from last years average.  crystal-ball-art-therapy-300x270

In order to better predict what’s ahead for 2014, studying the past to see the trend we are currently on is best unless you have a crystal ball… and if you do, can you please enlighten me on where to get one as sadly I don’t think I remembered to put that on my list to Santa this year??

In 1994, I'd bought my first home off of Ray & McClintock Rds in Chandler for $1 over the Auction list price of $88k ($54.83 $pft).  Being just 1 year after I'd first earned my Real Estate license, with rates fluctuating between 6 3/4% to 7% (which was considered good at the time as historically we'd seen rates much higher) it was all I could qualify for.  Being a foreclosure, it was a true fixer upper but a great starter home being a HUD home.  Features included: being built in 1983, 2 story, corner cul-de-sac lot with West facing oversized backyard, 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, 1605 sqft., 2 car garage with covered porch and patio.  I'd sold it 6 years later in 2001 for 140k ($87.23 $psf). That’s an average of 10% appreciation per year which had far exceeded the “norm” at the time. (interesting side note, in February of both year 2001 and 2011, our average price per sqft was the same in Chandler @ $88.35 $psf).

Traditionally, 4-6% per year annual appreciation was a safe investment and one you could typically count on in a normal market when one owned Real Estate and was higher than one could yield with your local bank on interest.  An average interest rate of around 7% was also average was what one could expect in the mid-nineties vs. today's still historic low rates which are at or below 5%

10 yr Chandler Stats-page-001

(If the image is hard for you to read above, please click on it to download the pdf)

Let’s now fast forward from 1994 to 2004, so we can focus on average annual appreciation in Chandler in just the last 10 yrs.

  • Week 1 January 2004, average annual appreciation in Chandler was 3.5% & $103.61 was the $psf (vs. today’s $133.69 $psf)
  • Week 30 July 2004, average annual appreciation in Chandler was 9.9% (say goodbye to single digit appreciation for a couple of years, keep all arms and legs inside at all times, this “ridehas started… )
  • Week 52 December 2004, average annual appreciation in Chandler has now hit 25.6% (What the ????) image

HOLD ON TIGHT- we are climbing to the top of our ride just a short year later… The average annual appreciation in Chandler peaked in 7/05 to a whopping 53.4%!  By the end of 2005 (Week 52) December we rolled through Splash Mountain and cooled to a mere 39.2% average annual appreciation in Chandler.  What was going on here? In just 6 short months, we dropped 14.2% Was this just a seasonal cool off? Or was it a sign that we may be heading for more than just "Splash Mountain" and instead a drop from The Matterhorn Mountain (wherein lies the Abominable Snow Man)? Obviously, we all know now it was sadly the latter of the two…

In 2006:

  • Week 1 January 2006 average annual appreciation in Chandler was 37.2%.
  • June 2006, we hit our peak price per sqft at $186.03.
  • Week 52 December 2006 average annual appreciation in Chandler was –5.5%!?! (We dropped another 31.7% in value in just 1 year, on top of the 14.2% loss from the previous year???).

(Why this happened and who was to blame was the topic of many a blog already, my focus today is to get you to tomorrow’s likelihood for our local market so that you may make an educated decision of what’s best for you and your family in 2014.)

In 2007-2011 (AKA The Dark Years):

  • Week 23 June 2007, we had a tiny positive appreciation recorded of just a paltry 1.2% and just leading to that in May 2007 an annual average appreciation of 0.03%.
  • Mid 2010 we had 2 more recordings of positive appreciations being recorded of 0.02 & 0.01% right before the 2010 tax credit expired.
  • Week 15 April 2009, we hit the bottom of our Real Estate Roller Coaster Ride at -29.5% annual average appreciation in the City of Chandler- that’s a change of 82.9% in just under 4 yrs; What goes up, must go down as the saying goes… Average $psf $103.39. (loss of $83 $psf from 2006's peak of $186)
  • Week 52 December 2009, the pendulum swings a little in our favor and we end the year at a –10.6% annual average appreciation.
  • In 2010 & 2011, we bounced around the bottom around –5% to –10% for the most part. (Average $88.48 $psf, back to same level of 2001,10 yrs prior, by Feb 2011)
  • Market primarily made up of REO’s, Foreclosures, Lender Owned, Auctions, Trustee sales and Short Sales.  Traditional sales were few and far between and building industry had almost completely stopped building with many going out of business completely.

FINALLY, Some much needed good news, in 2012:

  • Week 3 January 2012, we were back into positive annual average appreciation at 1.3% (Happy Days are here Again!).
  • Week 46 November 2012, Chandler average annual appreciation of 31.3% Many homes are no longer under water and less and less homes are being sold as Short sales and/or being lost to Trustee Sale.
  • Week 52 December 2012, 25.6% was Chandler’s annual average appreciation.

In 2013:

  • Week 51 December 2013, 10.1% is Chandler’s current annual average appreciation.  Down 15.5% in 1 year.  Are we experiencing a second bubble many people have asked?

Let’s take a closer look at this past year with weekly appreciation stats:

  • Week 1 January 2013 23%
  • Week 16 April 2013 27.5% - Maybe not a bubble??
  • Week 21 May 2013 15.2% - 12% loss in just 5 months, ok maybe there is a bubble coming after all??
  • Week 31 August 2013 21.4% - Rebounded a little, due to summer perhaps?
  • Week 42 October 2013 18.9% - Most cash investors have by now left AZ & moved on to other pastures...
  • Week 51 December 2013 10.1%

In October we had our Government Shut Down which had hurt consumer confidence, the Feds had also announced they were going to taper buying bonds which sent rates higher (which they are also doing again right now), & decreased affordability with higher prices have all led us to where we are today. Watch blog with Academy mortgage from October 2013 talking about this in more detail.

Finally, here we are with 2014 nearly upon us.

If pricing continues to remain flat, we would be at 0% (ZERO) appreciation before long, but the good news is that there’s 1.7% appreciation predicted for January 2014, meaning that within a month, we may be at an annual average appreciation of just under 12%.  When the Cromford Market Index hits 100%, that would mean that Supply and Demand would be Equal.  We’d have more of a Traditional market with an average supply of 4-5 months.  It’d be a "Safe" market to invest in where you wouldn’t risk losing Equity, but the gains would be minimal, like in the beginning of 2004. Our current weekly trend is at 5.1% average appreciation which is quite healthy.  We are coming off of a culmination of the last 12 months having a total of 19.2% annual average appreciation over where we were 1 year ago.  This is actually a much more fun environment to live and work in because we most likely will not see any huge highs or lows if we continue on the current path we are on.  Builders will continue to gain momentum as the resale inventory is still low, therefore keeping prices stable if not increasing ever so slightly.

Chandler STATS 2yrs-page-001

(If the image is hard for you to read above, please click on it to download the pdf)

annual sales priceToday:  Supply is at 73.1% and Demand is at 80.3% however our Market Index overall is still above 100%, coming in at 109.7%.  Our current Annual Average Price is slightly higher than where we came in last month, at $272k per home in the City of Chandler.  1 yr ago we were at $263K, and 2 yrs ago we were at $215k. Our Market index respectively were 173.4% and 137.1%.  As prices have raised, our Market Index has lowered, which is hand in hand with the Supply and Demand stats.

From my educated guess, I am liking where we are going. It appears our Roller Coaster ride has finally come to an end, for now anyhow.  Real Estate is cyclical and one thing that is constant is change.   2014 should be a year where the waters seem to calm and good homes will sell within normal traditional time frames when they show nicely and priced appropriately.  Expect interest rates to remain good in historic terms, at or around 5%.  Our current annual appreciation of 5.1% is a good “safe” place to be.  (Click here for Mike Orr’s commentary on the overall market for December) Whether you may be a Buyer or Seller (or both) in 2014, it should be a good time to make your next Real Estate move.  We are here to help!

crystal_ball_by_destinysoloInformation provided is a combination of Rebecca’s opinion based on the Real Estate stats provided by the Cromford report and Rebecca’s 20+ year experience working full time in our local Residential Real Estate Market. If you don’t live in Chandler, but would like to know the stats for your city, please feel free to contact Rebecca and she can provide it to you or a customized report for the Real Estate you own now or would like to own. Please feel free to contact Rebecca at 480-243-4242.

Our local Real Estate Market – The Cromford Market Index

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The Cromford Index™ is a set of market indicators that we use to measure the balance of supply and demand which that indicates the balance of the residential resale market. Values below 100 indicate a market that favors buyers. Values above 100 indicate a market that favors sellers. A value of 100 is equally balanced.

Right now- we are at the same market index as we were in 2004, BEFORE the insanity started in our local marketplace 9 years ago, which caused the bottom out of our market just 2 years later in 2007. It’s almost as if years 2005-2012 never happened with regards to pricing, rates, demand, etc…. We are back to being in a Traditional Marketplace again, with Short Sales and Foreclosures combined only comprising less than 1/5 of the available homes on the market to choose from.

imageWhat we’ve noticed with these charts is that the peak of the recent investor craze (which caused multiple offer bidding wars this past year and caused many buyers to give up even trying to purchase) was in 2012 primarily as by early Spring of 2013, it’s gotten easier and easier for buyers looking to purchase a home as the demand has dropped.

With the balance of supply and demand changing, we’ve also seen fluctuations in the interest rates that buyers could get on their mortgage loans. When rates were at insane never before seen lows (in the 3’s), we saw that help drive demand back up, which also helped bring values back up… as that happened and demand increased, we also saw rates start to climb again. 

In the last 6 months, we’ve seen demand decrease as the rates increased so much so that this past week, the Feds announced they will continue to purchase 85 Billion dollars worth of bonds on a monthly basis which caused our rates to decrease again. 

We’ve also seen a easing in the mortgage guidelines allowing folks in the “penalty box” ( they had a short sale, foreclosure, or bankruptcy) to buy again within a year or less versus 3-7 years and Programs like the “Home in 5” granting 5% of FREE $ to assist with down payments to make it easier for more buyers to return to the market sooner than later.

What does that mean for Buyers and Sellers today?

For Buyers: Rates are still at historic lows, in the 4’s makes purchasing more affordable than renting. Better selection of homes as the demand has recently fallen.  Easing of guidelines to make it attainable to purchase a home again for people who didn’t think they could yet.

For Sellers: Sellers need to be realistic when selling their homes.  They cannot expect multiple offers without pricing right and ensuring the home shows really well.  Staging always helps to sell a home faster for higher dollar amount.

Whether you’ve been considering purchasing &/or Selling and need help of qualified experienced Realtors who care about their clients, give us a call, we are always happy to help with no obligation.  We have several tools like our App provided by Academy Mortgage to make the task easier for our clients. 480-243-4242

FREE APP – You can use it from your smart phone!

Mobile App photo

  • Curious what your neighbors home went on the market for but don’t want to ask?
  • Did you just pass by a really cool looking house and curious what it looks like on the inside or what they are asking for it?
  • In a neat neighborhood and wondering what’s for sale right out your car window?

Use this app to satisfy all the above curiosities!

Don’t have a smart phone (Iphone, Droid, Samsung, Blackberry, etc)?  You can use it on your computer too!

Just text AZ13 to 32323 OR go to www.integrityallstars.com/app and you can download our app to use ANYTIME for FREE!

You can even share the app with family, friends, co-workers easily once you download it by simply clicking the “Share this App” feature.  It’s really simple to use!

It’s amazing what technology can do these days and what’s even better is that it’s tied to our MLS so it’s LIVE ACTIVE data, not the outdated stuff you tend to find on Zillow, Trulia or Realtor.com.

Give it a try and please Share IT if you find it useful; as we think you might!

“We are starting to see a few signs of weakening demand”

The Cromford Report - Market Snapshot - Chandler-page-001Weakening demand for Real Estate here locally may be a good or bad thing, depending on whether you are a buyer or a seller.  Per the Cromford Report’s Market Summary for the beginning of June, it appears we are experiencing a natural cooling off of our marketplace as obstacles for buyers are starting to get harder to overcome. If you speak to some of our recent buyers, they would share some frustrations for sure on not being quick enough to get the house they’d hoped to get due to great competition for the “good” ones.

Per the Arizona Regional MLS, we had 9,183 sales in the Greater Phoenix this past May, which was the strongest month for sales since June 2011. 1,228 were short sales, 699 were REO sales plus an additional 192 were HUD sales (FHA REO’s) but 7,064 were normal (traditional) equity sales?!? That is the largest number of normal sales in a month since May 2006 at the height of the housing bubble!!!  Leaving us with a paltry 1.7 month current supply of inventory. 

Of those homes that are Active, we’re finding that a lot of them are undesirable or over-priced. Attractive homes at realistic prices are few and far between and usually last only a few days before they go under contract.

The Cromford Report - Major City Dashboard-page-001With the change of season from spring to summer this will probably change and we expect the number of active listings to start rising, peaking in late November. This is just a normal seasonal pattern.

We expect little to no increase in June and our short term outlook is for pricing to remain in a tight range around $120 per sq.ft. for the next couple of months.

We suspect that the combination of stiff competition, rising interest rates and rising prices are taking the wind out of some buyer's sails. If this trend develops further we may end up with demand well below average in order to match the supply which is already far below average.

The chart above has stats for the City of Chandler, if you live in a different City in the Phoenix Metro area and would like to see the statistics for your city, just call or email us and we’ll be happy to provide it to you. Knowing where the market has been critical to help advise our clients of how to proceed with their Real Estate needs, short of getting a crystal ball (I’ve been on the look out for one for many years now), relying on the stats from the Cromford report is one of our best tools available to us local Realtors. For a copy of the full Report from Cromford, please click here.

FREE APP – You can use it from your smart phone!

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  • Curious what your neighbors home went on the market for but don’t want to ask?
  • Did you just pass by a really cool looking house and curious what it looks like on the inside or what they are asking for it?
  • Wondering what’s for sale nearby where you are? You can be driving through a neat neighborhood and curious how much the homes run?
  • Don’t have a smart phone (Iphone, Droid, Samsung, Blackberry, etc)?  You can use it on your computer too!

Just text AZ13 to 32323 OR go to www.integrityallstars.com/app and you can download our app to use ANYTIME for FREE!

You can even share the app with family, friends, co-workers easily once you download it by simply clicking the Share this App feature.

It’s amazing what technology can do these days and what’s even better is that it’s tied to our MLS so it’s LIVE ACTIVE data, not the outdated stuff you tend to find on Zillow, Trulia or Realtor.com.

Give it a try and please Share IT if you find it useful, as we think you might!

LawofSupplyandDemand-1

Law of Supply and Demand

Last summer I wrote the following blog on our site: http://integrityallstars.com/our-local-home-inventory-shortage-is-starting-to-improve/

It’s interesting to me to see this past Sunday’s Newspaper because they did a big article about Real Estate and how home values have gone up 34% from 2011 to 2012. Click here to see full article which contains stats on different zip codes, so if you already own a home locally, you can see what has been going on in your neighborhood. Mainly because those of us in the industry saw this coming since last year and explains why since last year, the local builders have been getting back to business buying and developing land to build new homes on again. (Click here for blog from last October)

When talking with clients today, trying to decide what to do next is their biggest problem.

If they have a home to sell, are they still upside down or should they wait just a little longer to sell?

Are prices really going to come up more in my area anytime soon?

If they want to buy while rates are still low (well below 4% still) and before prices raise any more, where should they start?

I’ve consulted with many recently afraid to sell and be out of a home because it’s been so competitive to get a “good” home to replace the one they would like to sell.

You can search for homes right HERE via the MLS if you are looking to buy or sell just to see what’s out there that would interest you or if you’d like to check your own home value you can click HERE for our FREE home calculator.

I see today’s predicament so many are facing as a catch 22 and it’s hard to give a generic answer when it’s a complex problem for many and why I like to be able to consult specifically with our clients on their needs and wants to develop the best game plan for them and their families.

Please feel free to contact me HERE or call 480-243-4242 to get started taking care of your own Real Estate needs from a company that cares!

MORTGAGE FORGIVENESS WAS EXTENDED!!!

Underwater home

I have to admit, I was just a little nervous when I rang in the New Year and our elected Politicians still hadn’t come together to extend the Mortgage Debt Relief Act of 2007 for another year.  I was extremely relieved when I awoke yesterday to the FANTASTIC NEWS. (<—click link- there were also other mortgage related extensions like the Mortgage Interest Deduction that were passed with the Fiscal Cliff deal)

We also had many clients that were concerned about getting their own Short Sale done & closed by the 12/31/12 deadline, just in case our government did not extend it. (We had 3 alone that closed this past Monday afternoon, all as MAJOR rushes to beat it!)

I also know that in the last few months, the FISCAL CLIFF has had many people personally fiscally frozen, not able or willing to make large financial decisions due to the fear of the unknown future of our National Economy and how going off the cliff may have impacted them directly.

The GREAT NEWS is that if you or someone you knew were one of those folks, waiting and holding off to find out the outcome to the political squabbling in our House and Senate- wait no longer! Click HERE to get started having your questions answered regarding IF a  Short Sale is a viable option for you at this time.  To find out IF your home is even underwater any longer (with our appreciation last year of 20+% in the Valley, many are not), just use our FREE SIMPLE calculator that can help predict when your home will become an ASSET again- if it isn’t already….

With Mortgage Rates still in the 3% range- it’s also still a fabulous time to PURCHASE a home, especially since the Mortgage Interest is still tax deductable, thanks to the deal struck yesterday in Washington at 2 am EST.

Whether it’s to BUY &/or SELL a home, if you are looking in the Phoenix Metro Area- please give the professionals of Integrity All Star Realty the privilege to help you and your family with their next Real Estate transaction, as it’s our passion and we couldn’t be happier about how this exciting news will help the majority of people out there!  Just call 480-243-4242 to get started, Rebecca Hidalgo and her agents are always happy to assist!

Brand New Homes are being built again!

new house 

Back in 2005, driving past a home under construction was commonplace here in the Valley.  During years 2008-2010, many new home subdivisions had tumbleweeds blowing through because we had vacant abandoned homes on the brink of or newly foreclosed in every subdivision around and buyers were only looking to purchase Lender Owned REO’s or Short Sales… It’s taken nearly 7 years, but all reports are showing that not only are the Builders coming back but Buyers are welcoming them with wide open arms! We noticed it in the early spring this trend starting, but today we are helping new families almost daily tour model homes trying to decide which builder is best for them.

This past year, we’ve seen multiple offer bidding wars driving up prices on Short Sales and Foreclosures due to shortages in inventory; which have been making buying Brand new a very attractive option again.  What’s also great is the impact it is having on our community with job growth as well!

The photo above is actually of my own home under construction taken just yesterday! 

It’s very appealing to purchase a new home again for so many reasons!  With prices being competitive- all new, with builder warranty, getting what you want- where you want and not having to settle with regards to layout or options since you pick your own when you build new a great option in today’s market where Sellers are demanding top pricing for their existing homes.

Click here to read the article written by Joel Huston of Integrity All Star Realty which discusses in detail the New Home market here in Phoenix for the last several years.

A lot of Builders are now coming back and making great sales- but they are not all a like… 

Most of our agents have worked in the past for local Builders and can help you and your family navigate between them with their sometimes confusing incentives, options, contracts and if you have a home to sell first, we do offer listing discounts to those who need to sell a home first before they buy their next home*** (talk to Rebecca for more details on our trade in program).

Give us a call to help you get started looking for your next Brand New home- we will be happy to help! 480-243-4242

I still have an upside down home- What should I do next?

 

Did you know that in the last 3 months, our local Real Estate market has seen a jump in prices by 15% overall? 

Have you asked yourself yet where that leaves you and your family?

Have you wondered if you can qualify to buy a *Home Again* today while the rates and prices are still so low?

Have you had a home that was upside down (or still own one) and did a Short Sale or had a Foreclosure in the past few years?

  • If you do still own a home today, should you keep it & rent it out or sell it?
  • How much could you rent it for?
  • How much could you sell it for?
  • Would it be a Short Sale?
  • Would you qualify for incentive money to do a Short Sale?
  • Should you short sale it today and rent your next home or can you buy now still right after having done a short sale?
  • When will it be worth what you owe on it again?
  • Should you just stay in your current home? Refinance it? Apply for a Loan Mod? Harp 2.0? Principal Reduction? Remodel? Do nothing and keep making your current mortgage payments?

What’s the best solution for you?

Everyone’s situation is a little different- Just CALL 480-243-4242 to get YOUR answers from professionals who care! We have a team of professionals that we partner with which include: Mortgage prequalification and credit advice, Real Estate Lawyers- Legal consultations & discounted negotiation services,  Property Management with discounted services as well!

 

Hidalgo_Rebecca yard sign

It’s starting to get easier to BUY a home again!

Have you or someone you know been out shopping for a home lately and had horror stories of multiple offers and a frustrating frenzy causing some folks to give up trying to buy a home?  Good News- It’s getting better out there right now! I’m not saying the “good” ones don’t still go fast, but our supply of inventory is on the rise- which will make it easier for the Buyers out there to be a little more discerning when it comes to selecting their next home.

The chart below represents the # of months worth of homes available for purchase in the City of Chandler during years 2012 vs 2008 vs 2004.

Chandler Stats

The reason I chose those years in particular to compare to our current inventory levels is because 2004 was when the “liar loans” came into existence and blew the doors open on the demand for housing.  It was due to the fact that so many more people could all of a sudden qualify to purchase a home with little or no $ down, which drove the prices up.

2012 and 2004 started out with almost exactly the same amount of inventory for the first quarter- the difference being that in 2004 the inventory continued to drop to an all time low of less than 1 month, where in 2012, we have been on a slight increase of our inventory since mid June of this year. 

A happy place for Supply Vs. Demand for our local market is a 4-5 month inventory supply and we very well may be on the path to getting there if it continues on the rise as it’s been the last 2 months.

Compare that to 2008, right as the Foreclosure crisis started to hit us here locally and Short Sales began to make an impact (due to the Mortgage Forgiveness Act getting signed by Bush at the tail end of 2007) when at our peak, we had 18 MONTHS of inventory flooding our market that shot prices down exponentially.

This month, REO (lender owned/foreclosures) homes have dropped to a record low level just below 14% of our market, that is the first time we’ve seen that happen since January of 2008.  At the PEAK of our Local Foreclosure Crisis (just 1 year later) in February of 2009, REO homes constituted 71% of our available inventory in our marketplace (In that 1 year alone, it jumped by 57%!).

Some more interesting stats (complements of the Cromford Report) just released are:

  • Active listings are down by 34% from this time last year
  • Monthly sales are down by 18%
  • Average sales price is up 23%
  • Median price has also jumped by 33% (from $109,000 to $145,000)

The LAW of Supply and Demand at it’s finest!

Those Sellers out there that have been waiting for prices to rise before they put their home on the market may want to pay attention and hurry to get theirs out there while it’s still a Sellers market!  It may quickly become a Buyers Market again if our supply continues to rise making it easier for Buyers to get good deals- without being in those infamous bidding wars. 

If you or someone you know needs the help of a Professional Experienced Real Estate Company, please call us for help at 480-243-4242 or click get started here and we’ll be happy to help however we can!

How long is this market going to keep increasing?

Seems to be the magic question these days- was just asked this yesterday by one of our repeat clients who’s concerned if she doesn’t sell her house today, that she may miss the boat….

I turned to Mike Orr of the Cromford Report and Director of the Real Estate Theory & Practice for ASU for the answers as he seems to be our best and most reliable predictor and follower of our local Real Estate Market.

The following 2 graphs are from the Cromford Report- this first one the “Daily Market Snapshot” with current stats compared to last month, last quarter, last year and 2 years ago for the entire Metro Phoenix Area.

Daily Market Snapshot

This one is specific for Chandler/Gilbert and shows the ACTIVES on the market and the ratio of Short Sales vs Bank Owned (REO), Traditional Equity, and HUD home listings. As you can see, we are returning to more and more traditional listings with a small fraction of what’s available being a “distressed” sale (Short sale, REO or HUD).  With the recent increases, less people are finding themselves upside down like they had been in 2010/11.

Active listing counts

But we actually did see a small dip in prices last month, so please read on further to understand better Mike Orr’s current take on our market. It seems overall very positive but the recent HUGE gains are not expected to continue- hopefully we are in stabilization mode which is better for everyone!

 

July 2 - Market Summary for the Beginning of July

Market Summary for the Beginning of July

In last month's summary we suggested that sales prices were in danger of getting ahead of themselves, and this proved to be a timely comment. In fact average and median prices recorded by ARMLS for for the month of June were far below those for May. The average $/SF for monthly sales declined by 4% from $101.42 to $97.44. This may have been a surprise to some of those who watched the average $/SF rise over 15% over the previous three months, but not to those who were also watching the average $/SF for pending listings, which turned south after April 30 and has been on a downward trend since. We always say you can't predict sales prices by looking at the history of sales prices. You can predict them in the short term by looking at pending listings prices and you can predict them in the longer term by studying the balance between supply and demand. A 15% rise over three months is bound to increase supply and reduce demand, but at the moment the reduced demand still far exceeds the increased supply, so the underlying long term price direction is up. The short term direction is down and we need to see the average $/SF for listings under contract stabilize and take another move higher before the market can make significant price gains over $100 per sq. ft. The stabilization seems to be done and a slight upward trend may be taking shape, but we do not expect any more months like February through May for quite a while. A slow and steady price recovery is healthier and less stressful.

The drop in pricing between May and June was due to a number of different factors:

1. A large increase in the percentage of short sales closed in June versus May. We currently show short sales taking a 34% market share in June versus 26% in May. This is a huge change for such a short time. It also drove the listing success rate for short sales to an all time record high of 82.6%. Please refer to our daily observations for comments about how these short sales tend to be significantly over-reported by ARMLS at the end of a quarter. This effect may dissipate a little over the next couple of weeks.

2. A sharp fall in the number of Greater Phoenix high end luxury homes closing in June versus May. We saw only 2 sales of homes listed over $3m during June, very different from the 15 we saw during May. However the price range between $1 and $3m did rather well in June with 98 sales versus 96 in May. Both totals were higher than in the corresponding months in 2011 and the low to mid luxury market is showing considerable improvement.

3. A reduction is average $/SF for all categories of closed sales. Normal sales retreated from $118.64 to $116.86 per sq. ft. a decline of 1.5%. Lender owned properties declined from $75.18 to $74.50 per sq. ft. down 0.9%. But the biggest price drop by far came with short sales which fell from $77.90 to $72.91 per sq. ft. This decline of 6.4% was very sudden and coupled with the gain in market share for short sales was the largest reason for the overall price decline in the market. It seems lenders are keen enough to avoid foreclosures that they are now agreeing to short sale prices that are below what could be obtained for the home as an REO.

Average $/SF was generally strongest above $225,000 while the lowest price ranges weakened except for the extremely hot segment of $100,000 to $125,000.

Overall supply recovered very slightly during June, but when we look at specific geographies, we see some big changes in different directions. The much higher pricing at the low end has brought out more sellers in places like El Mirage, where active listings (excluding AWC) rose by 71%. Other cities with significant rises include Arizona City (up 29%), Queen Creek (up 28%), Gilbert (up 26%), Maricopa (up 25%), Tempe (up 23%), Tolleson (up 23%), Anthem (up 20%), Glendale (up 18%) Laveen (up 17%) and Mesa (up 16%). However further falls in supply occurred in Gold Canyon (down 19%), Sun City (down 16%), Cave Creek (down 8%) and Scottsdale (down 6%).

Sales volume strengthened by 5% over May with 9,051 sales reported through ARMLS, but it was down 13% compared with June 2011 due to the ongoing tight supply.

Maricopa County foreclosures were subdued in June, with 3,902 Notices of Trustee Sale - down 14% from May and down 13% from June 2011. Completed Trustee Deeds numbered 1,838, down 14% from May and down 55% from June 2011. Among the residential parcels that received Trustee Deeds, only 824 reverted to the beneficiary. This is fewer than in August 2007 and indicates REO inventory will continue to decline. Total REO inventory of residential properties in Maricopa County is now 5,907, down 72% from its peak in October 2010. The number of residential properties that have active foreclosure notices is 16,450, down 6% from last month and down 65% from the peak of December 2009.

Despite the sudden reversal in price movement in the last couple of weeks, the market has not really changed dramatically. However the greater supply at the more affordable end of the market will tend to create higher volume of lower priced homes. This is good for frustrated buyers but will mean the averages and medians may not resume their upward trend for a while. This should not be seen as a problem. A 15% price rise for March, April and May would normally be more than enough price movement for a whole year.

If you or someone you know needs help with either purchasing or selling a home, please let us know- we are happy to help! Just call 480-243-4242

Expert: Real Estate ‘shadow inventory’ a myth

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Click the photo to be taken directly to the article.  We’ve referred to Mike Orr many times over the years as his Cromford report has better quality of data that is used in comparison with most others and his predictions much more reliable.

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Chase Short Sales in Arizona *UPDATE*

http://integrityallstars.com/chase-short-sales-in-arizona-also-wamu-lpbs/

I’ve posted a couple of blogs in the past on JPMorgan Chase Short Sales, one on their List Assist Program and another on Chase Short Sales in general.

Since things are constantly changing at the Banks regarding Short Sales, we decided it was time to give our viewers an update regarding Chase Short Sales and how they’ve been doing this past year.

If you or someone you care about is possibly interested in applying for a Short Sale with Chase, please be sure to call us at 480-696-5800 or click here to get started.  We work with them often and there is Chase Specific Paperwork that will need to be completed for them.  You can download it here if you need it.

short sale

Well Fargo Short Sales in Arizona*UPDATE*

 

Last year we did post a blog on Wells Fargo/Wachovia Short Sales and things have changed some, so we felt it would be beneficial to post an Update on how things have been going with them lately.

If you are interested, you can click here to see what we had to say about them last year this time….

In the past, they have been one of our favorites to work with and sure hope to be able to say that again very soon.  Wachovia still offers financial incentives to do Short Sales on average of $3000, depending on the borrowers hardship.

If you have a Wells Fargo or Wachovia loan and want to discuss your personal situation and find out if Short Sale is right for you, please click here or call us at 480-696-5800. We are always happy to help!

Check out the cover of yesterday’s the AZ Republic!

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*Click on the photo above to read the full article*

Kudos to our very own Chris Martin of Integrity All Star Realty!  He just helped the buyer of the home featured on the front page of the news yesterday close escrow on this great home.  He also is helping them sell their old home in Scottsdale. 

Today’s market has been rapidly changing the last 6 months- we are very excited here to see the turn around here in Phoenix.  Many families are rushing in to buy homes today trying to take advantage of the low prices and rates… rates have remained great but due to high demand and low supply, prices have been on the rise… Great news for Sellers finally- But buyers do need some patience and help from experienced and professional Realtors, like Chris Martin and our other agents here at Integrity All Star Realty.

Please call 480-243-4242 for help with your Real Estate needs today or Click here to get started.

short sale

Bank of America Short Sale *UPDATE*

Click here to watch Last years video update on Bank of America, some things have been changing over there and all good from our experiences working with them this past year.

Recently, Bank of America has been making big news- see the article just posted today Link to Article regarding incentive money.

On May 15, click the following link to read an email we received from Bank of America regarding the incentive money.

So long story short, if you are one of many who are still in a home that is worth less than you owe and you make your payments to Bank of America, now very well may be the time to apply for a Short Sale with them.

Here’s the paperwork we need in order to help you get started with selling your home BANK OF AMERICA PAPERWORK.

Please call 480-696-5800 or click here if you would prefer to speak with someone first to answer whatever questions you may have about the “Process”. We are here to help you or someone you know get through it as easily and quickly as possible.  We’ve helped countless numbers of families with Bank of America and don’t plan to stop anytime soon!

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Mortgage Forgiveness Act set to expire end of 2012

We think it should get extended for the second time, but we can’t say for sure.

Here’s the link to the IRS website is case you aren’t exactly sure what it is.

Are you in a home now that is upside down in value?  Have you been “on the fence” about short selling or foreclosing and don’t know which would be best &/or when?

In 2007, it was one of the last things Bush signed and it blew open the doors for Short Sales because before then people had to pay taxes on the “Phantom Income” they received from their creditors (IRS Form 1099 C).

Until the end of this year, it’s still in effect.

We do expect it will be extended again, but probably not until the last hour like in 2010 when President Obama had extended it for another 2 years.

We do expect it will cause delays in the last half of this year for short sales in general because of the “rush” of people who will want to short sell their home they are upside down in before it’s they think it’s too late.

We do think it’s a good idea to talk to someone now just in case it doesn’t get extended. But again, we do feel strongly that it should.

Please call at 480-696-5800 OR Click here and get started online if you think you are ready to explore your short sale options.

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Metro Phoenix Area #2 “TURN AROUND CITY”

Year-over-year Median List Price Appreciation: 15.38%
Year-over-year Median Age of Inventory: -27.47%
Year-over-year Inventory: -48.10%
Unemployment Rate (November): 7.7%
Search/Listing Ratio Rank: 7

Photo: Panoramic Images | Getty Images- CLICK PHOTO FOR LINK TO COMPLETE STORY

The other area on this list that’s not in Florida is the Phoenix-Mesa area in Arizona. It used to reside at the number four spot, but jumped ahead two notches between the third and fourth quarters of 2011. This area experienced more than its fair share of foreclosures, and one in every 317 homes still goes into foreclosure. However, the foreclosed homes on the market are being sold at bargain prices, which has caused a 27.47 percent decrease in the median age of inventory.

The city’s unemployment rate in November was 7.7 percent, better than the national average, which can only help boost the local economy. Real estate broker Christy Walker has an optimistic forecast. "The Phoenix market has experienced a positive change in the past year and is poised to continue rebounding throughout 2012," she says. "Employment is up, foreclosures have dropped significantly, investor sales are substantial and our inventory is hovering around a three-month supply with increasing demand."

If you ask any Buyer shopping for homes today, they will tell you it’s a dog eat dog world beating the pavements trying to find a “good” home at a “good” deal.  We are seeing multiple offer bidding wars; offers being placed on homes “site unseen” to try to beat the masses.

There is a Supply shortage out there with only 16,592 homes showing active in our local ARMLS as of this morning, when a year ago the number was more than double that!?!  We love our Investors who are coming from Canada, Hawaii, Australia and other parts of the world buying up everything they can at our rock bottom price HOWEVER it’s been very challenging for the local families trying to break back into the market again after a Short Sale or Foreclosure as a result since most investors are offering cash and quick closes.

OUR ADVICE?: Work with a knowledgeable Real Estate Company with experience and HAVE PATIENCE!  Start searching for homes HERE and please let us know if you or someone you know needs help navigating through our ever changing Real Estate Market!

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Was one of your New Year Resolutions to…. ???

Seems the whole world at the end of any given year going into the next makes New Years’ Resolutions and Goals of things they’d like to do in the following year.

For me, to be a better Mom and Wife and take better care of my health… pretty boring stuff- somewhat the norm- I do also want to buy a home again myself as my own waiting period of 3 years after a Short Sale or Foreclosure is coming around already and I figured I probably wasn’t the only one.  Since 2007, with the help from my team, we’ve helped over 300 families either Short Sale their home OR buy a home and we’d love to do the very same for you or someone you know that may need our help. If you are one of our past clients, the timing may be right for you this year to buy again too?

IF SHORT SALE is something you’ve been putting off- PLEASE DO NOT put off any longer- as it stands now, The MORTGAGE FOREGIVENESS ACT OF 2007 signed by Bush is set to expire at the end of this year.  Short sales can take 3-6 months on average.  If this does not get extended soon, I predict that we are going to have a rush of Short Sales towards the second half of this year which may cause additional “traffic jams” with the lenders. Some folks trying to do a Short Sale in 2012 may miss the boat entirely for the forgiveness of the “Phantom Income” that the banks issue via 1099s at the end of each year from their losses on distressed loans. DON’T let this happen to you or someone you know! Click Here to get started with the Short Sale Process

On the flip side, it’s never been a better time to buy- RATES are @ 4% and sales prices lower than I’ve seen in most of my nearly 20 year career in Real Estate.  Click Here to see the in depth Power Point Presentation from Mike Orr of the Cromford Report with very interesting statistics on our current market and what it’s done the last couple of years.

Either way- we are here to serve! Please feel free to call us anytime at 480-243-4242 for help achieving your Real Estate Goals!

Metro Phoenix Current Real Estate Sales Statistics & Update by Cromford

Click Graph Below for full Comprehensive Article regarding current market trends and stats- all very promising news that our local market is in recovery. Call us today at 480-243-4242 for your Real Estate needs!

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KFNX News Talk Radio 1100- This week- Rebecca Hidalgo is a guest speaker

  

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<<--------PLEASE CLICK MICROPHONE TO LISTEN TO REBECCA HIDALGO, DESIGNATED BROKER OF INTEGRITY ALL STARS, TALK ABOUT SHORT SALES ON THIS WEEK’S EPISODE. (She goes on from minutes 10-18 on podcast)

If you or anyone you know is in need of help, found themselves upside down on their home and they may or may not be able to still make their mortgage payments- have them call 480-243-4242 for a free personal consultation OR click here to get started.

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How do you get $17,500 for going “Green”???

Larry Ricci of Going Green Solar joined Rebecca today to share with her the news about this exciting program that incentivizes Buyers of homes to install Solar Panels in their homes along with a few other energy efficient items; build it into their purchase loans, and they get up to $17,500 back in tax credits and rebates. Please call Larry directly at 602-301-0022 for specific questions & you can click here for a Brochure on the program highlights.

If you think you lost out on the First Time Home Buyer Credit- for the right person and home- this may just be PERFECT! We’ll be happy here at Integrity All Stars to help you get going with this if you are interested in learning more and finding the right house that will qualify- give us a call here at 480-243-4242 OR click here to get started.

“supply/demand imbalance is becoming extreme” says Mike Orr of the Cromford Report

 

Every Month we like to post the latest article by Mike Orr to educate our clients on the most recent stats in our local Real Estate Marketplace.  Very few have not been affected and with prices comparable now to those of nearly 20 years ago, we are seeing very little inventory out there for buyers to pick from.  

CLICK HERE to read Mike’s entire article; but here’s a summary quote that is very telling.

 

Inventory-page-001“It seems to me that although the supply/demand imbalance is becoming extreme, demand from investors alone is unlikely to sustain a significant upward price movement. We may have to wait until the general public realizes the degree to which the reality and perception of the supply picture have diverged, so that fear of missing out on a bargain overcomes the fear of prices dropping yet further.” 

Our thoughts is that once word is out to those “fence sitters” that there are few “good” houses out there right now, those prices will start to climb as more competition hits our local market place.  Don’t miss the “bottom” if you are thinking about buying!  And for those of you wanting to (Short) sell, homes are going fast- before the holidays roll around and it slows down- give us a call to discuss your options 480-243-4242 or CLICK HERE to get started.

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July’s current Real Estate Market Trends

With Inventory at a low of 29k in Maricopa County (This time last year we had 41k homes on the market); we are beginning to see multiple offers on our properties in just the last few weeks.  The “good” ones are going quick.  Prices continue to defy the law of Supply and Demand and are staying low, at least for now. If you are thinking about buying or selling- NOW is definitely the time.  Please give us a call at 480-243-4242 if there is anything we can do to help you or someone you know with their Real Estate needs.

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June’s Market Summary per the Cromford Report

The Law of Supply and Demand have not effected prices- yet! If you are thinking about buying a home and putting it off until you hear that things have gotten better out there- you will miss the bottom of the market for sure- please read the article written by Mike Orr (below) of the Cromford Report and he explains WHY.

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It feels almost like the inverse of 2005.

In the second half of 2005, supply rose dramatically but no-one seemed to take any notice. There was a widely believed myth that prices could never go down. Between March 31, 2005 and June 30, 2006, active listings rose from 8,394 to 45,729 (up 445%) creating a huge glut of homes for sale. Yet average sales prices continued to rise throughout this period, up 28.6% from $146.98 to $189.05 per sq. ft. Meanwhile demand fell 16.5%, with sales per month dropping from 8,490 to 7,093. It was as if everyone believed the laws of supply and demand no longer applied. Of course we found out by 2007 that supply and demand really did matter and the bubble burst explosively in 2008 causing untold damage to the economy and family finances.

It's a question of timing. Supply and demand do control pricing, but in real estate there is a very long time delay between cause and effect. That timing can be extended even further by sentiment. In 2005 sentiment was off-the-charts positive - "irrational exuberance" ruled the roost and caused people to make decisions that in hindsight look crazy. Not just homeowners and developers, but especially lenders and the investors who fueled the credit surplus. Those few of us who tried to warn people in early 2006 that prices would fall dramatically were treated a bit like Harold Camping predicting the end times.

The opposite seems to be happening now. Sentiment is very negative. Everyone seems convinced that prices can only fall further, yet demand is rising and supply has been falling like a rock dropped off a cliff for 6 months now. It comes down to one simple fact: people believe what they want to believe. The facts do not exert a significant influence.

Here at the Cromford Report, we only deal with facts and figures, not beliefs, so here is the market update.

Sales - We are currently recording 9,814 sales in May. This is up 3.5% over April and up 10% over May 2010. This is a very strong sales total because in May 2011 sales are not being boosted by the government bribe (sorry, tax credit) that applied in 2010 for buyers of owner-occupied homes.

Pending Sales - At 13,268 on June 1, pending sales are down 0.4% compared with May 1 but up 6.7% compared with June 1, 2010. Again an extremely strong indicator of demand. In 2010 demand fell sharply during the summer after the tax credit expired, but there is no sign so far that the same will happen in 2011.

Active Listings - At 31,346 on June 1, active listings are 9.4% below May 1 and 23.3% below June 1, 2010. Supply is clearly falling fast. However this understates the situation because a large proportion of the active listings already have a contract against them. In fact there were 7,737 AWC (active with contingent contract) listings as of June 1, 2.6% higher than the very high level we saw on June 1, 2010. If we exclude these AWC listings, we have only 23,609 active listings, down 12.7% in a month and down 28.8% compared with last year. This is almost 60% down from the peak of October 2007.

Supply Versus Demand - The average months supply (active listings divided by monthly sales rate) for the period Jan 1, 2001 to June 1, 2011 is 5.9 months. Right now we have a 3.2 month supply. Yet we read everywhere that there is a "glut of foreclosed home on the market". What we are reading may have been true in November last year. It is not true now. In fact available supply is really even tighter than this. If we only count active listings that don't have a contract the months supply number drops to just 2.4 months. Anyone who thinks this is a "glut" is not living in the real world. They should just ask anyone who is actually trying to buy a home right now. Competition is intense, and not just for bank-owned homes and trustee sales. It is also heating up for short sales and normal listings. If you are trying to buy a home that is at all desirable and is priced at market or below, expect multiple bids. If you are a seller, then you only need to price realistically and your home will sell quickly.

(All the above numeric information is for "all areas & types" within ARMLS.)

Records Being Set

In Maricopa County, May saw the largest ever number of distressed homes disappear from inventory. Pending foreclosures fell by 3,394 homes while REO inventory fell by 971 residential properties.

For Maricopa County, May gave us the highest ever percentage of out-of-state buyers. 29.9% of sales went to non-Arizona residents. The average between January 1999 and May 2011 was 11.9%. The absolute count was also a record - 2,648 homes sold to out-of-state buyers. The average since Jan 1999 is 1,446.

For Maricopa County, May saw the highest ever number of foreclosures selling direct to third parties at the courthouse steps. The record set was 1,476, 33% of all the trustee sales.

Paradise Valley

Exceptionally strong market activity is occurring in Paradise Valley where sales are now averaging 52 per month compared with 31 last year at this time. Inventory is down to 319 from a peak of 581 in April 2009 when sales were averaging only 9 per month.

Prices

After a bump upwards between mid April and mid May, average sales price per sq. ft. is back down a little at the beginning of June. Although we are still some 2% to 3% above the market bottom in January and February this year, in most places prices have not yet responded to the huge changes in supply and demand. Why not? Please refer to what happened in 2005, but with everything upside down. The rules of supply and demand have not been lifted. Of course, you don't have to believe me, but please don't say I didn't warn you.

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According to Channel 12- Real Estate is on the RISE!

GREAT NEWS- and for those of you who’ve been waiting to buy, give us a call at 480-243-4242.  (Mike Orr of the Cromford Report is one we quote often on our website as well.  See article below by him.)

This Summer will prove to be one high in competition for the “good” ones out there!

Real Estate Market Summary for April 2011

April 7th Market Snapshot

The most impressive thing about the month of March 2011 was the huge unit volume of closed sales. We are currently showing 9,901 closed sales on ARMLS for all areas and types. That is the 5th highest monthly total ever recorded on ARMLS and the second highest sales volume ever for the month of March. The only months which have surpassed it were June 2005 (10,213), August 2005 (10,002), June 2004 (9,973) and March 2005 (9,949).

Meanwhile demand is accelerating while supply is falling quickly.

Supply is falling in almost every geography and price range but is most noticeable at the price ranges below $150,000 and in the outskirts of the valley, particularly in Maricopa (city), Queen Creek, Anthem, Casa Grande and Buckeye, This largely due to enthusiastic buying of homes built in the last 15 years which can be found for sale at a discount of 70% or more compared with their price at the time of construction.

Trustee sales in Maricopa County hit a high number of 5,226 in March, due to the trustees catching up from the Bank of America moratorium in November last year. Notices of trustee sales were only modestly up from February at 5,397, which is not an impressive number given that March contained a lot more working days for lenders than February. As a result the number of homes pending foreclosure dropped sharply during March to the lowest number since March 2009.

Third parties buying at trustee sale made a new record with 1,379 purchases (26.4% of the auctions). This is by the far the largest number of properties ever purchased at trustee sale. Another 3,842 properties got no bids and went to the beneficiary to become REO inventory. This may help slow the fall in the REO inventory listed for sale of ARMLS.

Lenders seem to have noticed the enthusiasm of buyers and having allowed the average list $/SF of REOs to fall between April 1, 2010 ($87.56) and March 20, 2011 ($68.84), they are now increasing them again and the average list $/SF has popped up 3.5% in just the past 2 weeks. Asking prices for short sales and pre-foreclosures seem to have stalled at around $79 to $80 per sq. ft. Normal listings have been increasing in list price for some time, reaching a low of $185.93 on September 24 and rising by 4.5% over the last 6 months to hit $194.37 today.

While average sales prices are very slightly higher in March compared with January and February, there is still no clear sign of a significant trend forming. The median sales price has been stuck at $110,000 for three month now., again with no sign of a major move either up or down over the short term.

With the balance between supply and demand changing quite quickly for the better over the last four months, we are down to an overall inventory level of 4.2 months based on the monthly sales rate. This can be regarded as a "normal" reading for the time of year (it is below the 4.5 we measured in 2002 at the same point in our last "normal" year). This goes a long way towards explaining why prices have stabilized once again.

Currently the trend is for supply to fall further and demand to increase, and if this continues then at some point it is likely to lead to prices moving higher. How soon and how much, it is too early to say. However it is not too early to say that prices are unlikely to fall to any significant degree while this situation persists. Last year the disappearance of the tax credit at the end of April caused the market to deteriorate suddenly in May and pricing fell sharply between July and September. At the moment we see no indication of a similar interruption to the recovery process that is now under way.

(Report from Mike Orr of the Cromford Report)

Please call us at 480-243-4242 if you are looking for a home to purchase and we’ll happily send you a customized list (at no charge) or start shopping here on our website.

March Market Update Per Cromford Report

Market Summary for the Beginning of March

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If you are watching average sales prices then you are probably bored - nothing much is happening at the moment. They are not going up or down, just wobbling around unsteadily like the Inception top, although they gave up around 12% between July and January.

However we don't advise watching prices right now. They are the very last indicator to turn round at both the top and bottom of a cycle. The indicators you should watch instead are behaving in very interesting ways at the moment. Most of these ways are very positive. Nothing is certain in this world but the current trends are pointing to another market recovery attempt, similar to the one we saw in 2Q 2009.

Supply

We measure supply using active listing counts. These are coming down fast in many (but not all) areas. The total number for all areas & types in ARMLS residential resale as of March 1 was 40,240. On February 1 this was 42,522 so we are down 5.6% in a single month. Last year on March 1, we had 42,139, so we are down 4.5% in 12 months. This latter number doesn't sound very impressive, but supply was growing last year from June through November, peaking at 45,960 on November 20. Supply has fallen by 12.5% since November 20 and this is a definite signal that overall supply is now on a strong downward trend.

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We measure demand using two primary indicators - recent sales and pending listings - and we also keep a watchful eye on total listings under contract (i.e. pending plus AWC). At the moment we are recording 7,155 sales (all areas & types) during February 2011. This is 8.6% higher than January and 11.4% higher than February 2010. Not too shabby. In fact this is the second highest February sales total for ARMLS (Feb 2005 came top). Pending listings were 11,997 on March 1, up 13.6% from February 1 and 1.8% below March 1, 2010 when we in the grips of tax credit buying fever.

These are good demand numbers.

Supply vs. Demand 

Demand is strong and supply is falling, so that ought to be good for the market. However sentiment is still very negative after the double dip price drop during the second half of 2010 and it always take several months for an improvement in the market balance to be reflected in pricing.

SOUNDS LIKE ONE SITTING ON THE FENCE AND WAITING TO BE SURE IT’S A GOOD TIME TO BUY MAY END UP PAYING MORE! THE INDICATORS ARE STRONG SHOWING THAT THE PRICES WILL START TO GO UP IF THIS CURRENT TREND CONTINUES.  ALSO, DON’T FORGET RATES HAVE BEEN TRENDING UPWARDS AS WELL THIS LAST 6MTS.  THOSE THAT WAIT TOO LONG MAY MISS THE BUS ALTOGETHER!

IF YOU ARE INTERESTED IN READING THE REST OF MIKE ORR’S ARTICLE REGARDING OUR CURRENT LOCAL MARKET- PLEASE CLICK HERE

Please feel free to start shopping for homes on our website or call us at 480-243-4242 to have a customized list emailed over to you or someone you know who’s been thinking about buying a house before this great opportunity to take advantage of our current market is missed!

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Housing and Mortgage Predictions for 2011

Predicting mortgage and housing

 

With 2010 com­ing to a close, the “experts” are out in full force, mak­ing pre­dic­tions for next year’s hous­ing and mort­gage mar­kets on busi­ness tele­vi­sion and in the papers.

Pre­dic­tions for 2011 are wide-ranging:

The prob­lem with hous­ing and mort­gage pre­dic­tions is that — like all pre­dic­tions — they’re just edu­cated guesses about the future. Nobody knows what will really hap­pen with the hous­ing and mort­gage mar­kets in 2011. All any­one can do is the­o­rize. As layper­sons, though, it can be hard to sep­a­rate the­ory from fact.

Tele­vi­sion can make that task even more dif­fi­cult at times.

As an exam­ple, when a well-dressed econ­o­mist goes on CNBC and presents a clear, suc­cinct argu­ment for why home prices will fall on 2011, we’re inclined to believe the analy­sis and con­clu­sion. After all, the out­come seems plau­si­ble out­come given the facts. But then, imme­di­ately after, a dif­fer­ent econ­o­mist presents an oppo­site argu­ment — that home prices will rise in 2011 – and her analy­sis seems sound, too.

Even Fred­die Mac can’t see the future.

Last year, the gov­ern­ment group pre­dicted mort­gage rates to 6 per­cent in 2010. That never hap­pened, of course. Instead, con­form­ing mort­gage rates dropped over a 7-month period this year to lev­els best be described as “his­toric”.  Fred­die Mac couldn’t have been more wrong.

So, what’s a home­owner to believe?

About the only thing that’s cer­tain right now is that mort­gage rates remain low by his­tor­i­cal stan­dards, and that home prices do, too. Also, that both hous­ing and mort­gage mar­kets appear to be rid­ing momen­tum higher into 2011.  This sug­gests that it will be more expen­sive to buy and finance a home by the end of 2011.

Until that time, how­ever, pre­dic­tions are just guesses.

(Article above posted on several blogs and websites as of 12/29/10— original source unknown)

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In my opinion; after the roller coaster rides of 2008 through 2010 (government intervention impacted supply and demand)- we will see 2011 still riddled with foreclosures however the market did hit a second bottom locally 10/10/10 according to The Cromford Report (first one was 4/6/09).

I personally expect it to remain relatively flat since I am currently selling homes at or below pricing of when I started in the Real Estate business nearly 18 years ago- there just isn’t much more lower it can go and as the economy in general recovers, prices will slowly increase- that is for certain!  (That’s just an educated guess based on the article above- lol )

With that said; many buyers have sat on the fence waiting to see what will happen next year before they do anything.  Unfortunately we won’t know for sure when we’ve started a permanent “recovery” until after prices do increase, meaning those waiting for certain indications will actually miss the bottom and purchase when the prices have already increased.  There are a lot of great “deals” out there TODAY when one really looks, they’ll come to the conclusion that it’s a great time to invest or “move up” into that home one could not have afforded 5 years ago.  There’s also something to be said for the enjoyment your own home brings and pride of ownership.

For Sellers who are upside down and either purchased or refi’d in years 2004-2008; unless the banks actually start reducing principal balances on debts owed- a strong consideration should be made with regards to doing a short sale today in order to get out from under that house.  If the market ever returns to the record high in 2005, it’s unlikely it’ll be anytime soon.  Most likely, it will be several years down the road before those homes could ever be worth the same values again that we saw before.  Why keep throwing “bad” money in after “bad” money in the meantime?  If you haven’t gotten behind in your payments yet, we’ve helped clients successfully sell short and immediately repurchase today (it’s actually possible to do a short sale and not damage your credit, just ask us how!).

For Buyers; Rates are still in the 5’s and prices at record lows; you cannot go wrong with purchasing a home today if you can qualify for a mortgage loan OR have cash on hand (calling all investors)!  For current renters; it’s a no brainer- with the tax advantage of home ownership and the net effective house payment vs. rent comparison- renters can live in much nicer homes today for the same or less money monthly than they can renting.  Click here to read more…

Click here to get started OR call 480-243-4242 and we will gladly help you navigate through all of this confusion and help you achieve your and your family’s Real Estate GOALS for 2011- just let us know what you need and we’ll be there for you, your family and/or friends!  We are never too busy for your referrals and greatly appreciate our past clients passing the word about us on to others.

Want to buy a house but have credit issues that are keeping you renting?

Did you lose a home to Foreclosure or Short Sale and had missed mortgage payments in the past but don’t want to be a “renter” any longer???

Guess What- We have a great solution for you! 

It’s called the Lease Option Purchase or otherwise known as an Agreement for Sale where Equitable Title can be given to the Lessee. 

By having Equitable Title; one would be given the right to purchase the home at a said price, within a certain time period- where upon Legal Title is then transferred when the Lessee can qualify for a mortgage loan.

The Benefit to the Buyer/Lessee would be locking in today’s low prices and building the savings for the future down payment.  We currently are working with Glenco Homes, who is offering 5 properties for such option.  Jeff  Wright (owner) will allow part of the rental payment to go into an escrow account and over a two or three year period (terms are negotiable); one would have sufficient funds for their down payment once they could qualify for a mortgage.

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(Click Photo above to view these listings)

We do recommend that someone interested in this program would utilize the services of two of our partner companies, Academy Mortgage- Ryan Nelson and Fidelity National Title.  Their services combined greatly increase the odds of a successful transfer of legal title after the agreement has been completed!

Ryan offers Score Guardian free of charge to our clients.  It’s a program meant to help people get back on track with their credit so that they will become credit worthy again with the right counseling. 

Fidelity Title (Ocotillo Branch) has had much experience in servicing these types of agreements and we trust them to ensure accurate accounting of payments so that the future loan underwriter can verify that all payments were made on time and where the source of the down payment came from.

Call us today at 480-243-4242 to get started with shopping for your next home!

REO, Bank Owned, Foreclosure- they all mean the same thing…

 

Bank Owned, REO, Foreclosure; they all mean the same thing. The last person who owned it couldn't keep up on the payments and it reverted back to the bank in a Trustee Sale.  Now it's up to the bank/lender to sell it to someone new and there’s a lot of competition out there these days since Lender Owned Active Listings have grown 68% in Just 5 Months!

There were 8,544 lender owned homes offered for sale as active listings on ARMLS as of September 30. As of April 30, 2010 there were only 5,090. This is a 68% growth in just 5 months. In recent weeks we have seen prices start to fall almost as steeply as we did during 2008 as a result of our market getting a huge supply in such a short period of time.

COUPLED WITH INSANELY LOW INTEREST RATES- YOU CAN BUY A HOME for just $200,000 for as little as $7000 down (FHA) & @ barely over $1000 a month (principal and interest).  At the peak of the market, it would have cost you nearly as much as 3 times for the same home (if not more) !!!

REO OCT 10

For the buyer out there today; there are deals to be had- especially if they don’t mind rolling up their sleeves and doing a little rehab work.  A year ago today there were barely half the amount of REO (Bank Owned, Foreclosures) homes on the marketplace- just look at the top row of the chart above to see those stats. Gone are the bidding wars for these homes, which do make the Short Sales less appealing. 

Typically the Short Sales that are occupied are in better shape than their vacant Bank Owned counterparts, but waiting for the unknown can hurt their appeal in comparison of getting an answer on average within a week on a Bank Owned Home. 

DO YOU NEED HELP NAVIGATING IN THIS MARKET??? CONTACT US AT 480-243-4242 OR START SHOPPING NOW HERE.

We are also happy to send you a custom list of homes that fit what you are looking for, just ask us!

Did you know, you don’t have to “GO LATE” to do a Short Sale???

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(Check out the Visual Show of Josh’s new house HERE!)

WHAT’S EVEN BETTER THAT IF YOU ARE CURRENT AND HAVE NO LATE PAYMENTS, FHA WILL LOAN YOU MONEY THE DAY YOU CLOSE ESCROW ON YOUR SHORT SALE FOR A NEW HOME!

  • The misconception is due in large part to many servicers over the last couple of years telling borrowers if they wanted to do a loan modification or short sale, to have their file looked at, they had to be delinquent.  NOT TRUE ANYMORE for most servicers/investors. 
  • Depending on someone’s financial situation; they may not even have to contribute to the banks loss.  Some cases yes.
  • Josh’s FICO score was barely impacted at all by his short sale and before he closed, the underwriter for his new loan received his approval letter and approved him for the new loan because the approval letter he had was with “FULL FOREGIVENESS LANGUAGE” of his unpaid debt.
  • Josh closed 2 weeks ago and had let the previous homeowners rent for a couple of weeks, so he actually walked in the door to a check waiting for him.

Josh’s story is one of true success.  He retained his great credit; got out from under a home that was UPSIDE DOWN; took advantage of today’s great prices and rates (4.5% interest fixed for 30yrs).  So he ended up with a larger home with a pool closer into town for LESS than what his old mortgage payment was. 

IF YOU KNOW SOMEONE INTERESTED IN DOING THE SAME THING- PLEASE SHARE THIS SUCCESS STORY WITH THEM AND ASK THEM TO CLICK HERE TO GET STARTED WITH THE PROCESS.  INTEGRITY ALL STAR REALTY WILL HAPPILY HELP THEM TOO!!!

Of course if you are late on your mortgage payment, you can still do a Short Sale and buy a home again; but it’s a minimum of 2-3 yr waiting period at this time and lending guidelines are constantly changing.  (If staying current is an option still, call us right away at 480-243-4242 or click the link above to get started in case FHA changes their guidelines down the road.)

PHOENIX REAL ESTATE MARKET UPDATE AS OF OCTOBER 4TH, 2010

So what in the world has been going on lately??? Foreclosures are on the rise, seems we are experiencing that dreaded “double dip” which is keeping buyers on fences and investors out of our market- what has to happen before that turns around?  We should see first where we were before we try to figure out where we are going next…

PHX MKT

Based on the graph provided by The Cromford Report (please click photo for full articles from Mike Orr explaining our current market as well) :

  • During the peak of our marketplace in 2005, we had seen annual appreciation rates from 16% up to close to 50%.
  • During 2008; we saw a steady decline from just below 0% declining down to below –40%.
  • During 2009; we saw our market do the exact opposite and have a steady appreciation throughout the year climbing us almost entirely out of the declining market.
  • During 2010; “The Year of Hope” as dubbed by Mike Orr in January 2010; we saw our market have a huge increase in appreciation due to the Obama Tax Credit for Home Buyers.  Unfortunately we now see that was an artificial demand and since it’s expiration, we’ve seen yet another decline and we are now back in the negative as of late August.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have also stopped granting postponements to their borrowers in default working out either loan modifications or short sales, which is increasing our supply of Foreclosure Inventory. Seems contradictory to what our marketplace needs in order to recover.

Interest rates are still in their lowest in years- but there seems to be so much fear out there right now as a result of the lumps and bruises we’ve endured the last few years, those people in a position to purchase seem to be holding out to make sure that pricing isn’t going down further.  Seems the last month we’ve stabilized and we are naturally correcting ourselves; but we do need to have our investors back in our marketplace to drive up demand again.  The job market still seems strong in Arizona, which definitely helps. 

Back before the craziness of 2004-2005; the average appreciation in Phoenix area had always been about 6% since the time I started in Real Estate in the early nineties.  Much of that has a lot to do with the continued job growth overall in Arizona, cost of living and quality of life with our great weather.  It’s just a matter of time before we get back to the normal 6% appreciation; especially as those borrowers re-enter our marketplace that lost their home to short sale or foreclosure in 2006/7—they are already candidates to purchase again.  By next year, the demand will increase just to that because a huge percentage of homes lost went in 08/9.

For those of you hanging on to your homes because you are afraid to Short Sale and damage your credit; we are seeing more and more people get approved to Short Sale and repurchase immediately as long as they stay current on their mortgages, so they can take advantages of today’s low low rates and low low prices.

REMEMBER- THERE IS NO WAY TO KNOW WE’VE HIT OUR BOTTOM UNTIL ITS ALREADY PASSED!  IF YOU NEED HELP WITH REAL ESTATE TO EITHER BUY OR SELL A HOME- CALL US TODAY AT 480-243-4242 OR CLICK HERE TO GET STARTED!

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Please watch my video about us and “Like” our fan page on Facebook- We are always sharing pertinent Real Estate information PLUS events taking place in the area. Please share with anyone you know that is in need of our services.  Thank you!  Rebecca Hidalgo, Designated Broker/Owner- Integrity All Stars 

Current Metro Phoenix Real Estate Market Update

the market recovery that prevailed from March 2009 to November 2009 was followed by stability between December 2009 and May 2010. We no longer have stability or recovery. The market is in decline.” From the Cromford Report 8/17/2010

Chandler August Cromford 

    • Wow! Sure sounds a little depressing when reading the latest articles written by Mike Orr of the Cromford Report.  Click on photo above for the PDF of the entire article if you are interested in reading all of the details.  It’s basically a result of the Tax Credit giving us an artificial demand for housing- when that went away, so did demand and now prices have dropped. 
    • We’ve seen an increase of homeowners as a result call to get started with the short sale process.  They’ve tried hanging on as long as they can but this second wave of decline has hit them to a place where the recovery seems doubtful if they remain in their current home/situation.
    • LUCKILY INTEREST RATES ARE AT AN ALL TIME LOW and coupled with SUPER LOW PRICES COMPARABLE WITH THE MID 90’S IN MANY AREAS- The monthly payment and overall savings to just 6 months ago far exceeds what someone had received with the tax credit.
    • We have a great home in Maricopa for example- $70,000- built in 04, 2300sqft, with a principal and interest payment based on an FHA loan of only $350 a month???  That’s just with $2500 down!!
    • We saw some homes sell in March and April for much much higher because people were driving prices up just to get the tax credit and with a higher interest rate at that time too.  Same home would easily cost $8k more just a few months ago right off the top not to mention what the difference monthly would add up too in just a few years of ownership.
    • SO MORAL TO THIS STORY- IF YOU “MISSED OUT” ON THE TAX CREDIT- BE GLAD AND BUY A HOME TODAY!  IT’S ACTUALLY A MUCH BETTER TIME TO BUY THAN IT WAS JUST A FEW MONTHS AGO!

Our Website allows you to search the MLS on your own just like we do- Click here to search homes in your area now! or call us at 480-243-4242 and we’ll be happy to send you a list of Foreclosed Homes or any type of home that you may be looking for.

HOME BUYER TAX CREDIT EXPIRATION, EXTENSION, AND EFFECTS ON OUR MARKET

 

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Here’s a link to the June Market report I wrote based on last month’s reports coming from Mike Orr of the Cromford Report.  If you want to get a better idea of what is going on in our market place today; I recommend reading both.  I’ve been full time in Real Estate since 1993 and I can definitely say we are on the road to recovery but we still have a long way before we get there.

Why hire us? If you need help in either selling or buying a home or know someone that does, please click here to get started or call us at 480-243-4242. 

Metro Phoenix’s JUNE Real Estate Market Update

June Metro Phoenix Real Estate Sales

(Please click on photo above for a downloadable PDF of the article written by Mike Orr of the Cromford Report; bullet points listed below)

Last month; in Metro Phoenix’s Real Estate Market we saw the supply of REOs increased substantially, short sales were stable and normal listings declined in number:

  • REO listings grew 11% from 5,087 to 5,626 (Greater Phoenix, all types)
  • Short Sales / Pre-foreclosure listings grew 1% from 16183 to 16,347 (Greater Phoenix, all types)
  • Normal listings fell 5% from 18,123 to 17,226 (Greater Phoenix, all types)
  • Because sales pricing is higher than last year, we saw a more significant 8.6% jump in dollar volume which is good news for the optimists.
  • It seems likely that almost anyone who wants a "starter home" in 2010 and could get approved for a home loan has already purchased one before the Tax Credit expired at the end of April.
  • Overall we can say with confidence that the luxury market is now showing strong signs of improvement while the low end end of the market is weakening significantly. The weakness in lender-owned homes is particularly noticeable, with REO sales volume down 36% year on year. 
  • These annual charts are very slow to react to changes but confirm the bottom of the market is now over a year behind us.  The most important measures of real home pricing - the average price, median price and average $ per sq. ft. of homes that actually sell have been moving in a general upward direction for Greater Phoenix since April/May 2009.
  • New notices of trustee sale dropped another 8% from April, to the lowest monthly number (6,471) since July 2008. Trustee sales also dropped 8% to 4,090, the lowest total since November 2009. 
  • Nevertheless market distress remains very high and will dominate the market for at least the next two years. Short sales are becoming more significant as each month goes by, while lender-owned properties become gradually less so.
  • The market is still fragile and although it has stabilized over the last year, we must caution that in the last several days the Cromford Market Index has been falling fast due to weakening demand matched with a fairly strong and stable supply.
  • The biggest question we have right now:  Are the changes we have seen in the last month merely due to the end of the tax credit or are the result of more significant changes in the demand for housing??

Stay tuned for next months update and we hope to be able to answer that question for you.  In the meantime; if you’d like to discuss your particular situation with one of our very talented and experienced Realtors, please call us at 480-243-4242.